It’s been little more than a decade since we first added Celcius (CELH) to the Beverage Watch List at $0.99 a share..
LIVE QUOTE
$0.33 to $96 Peak Chart
..or $0.33 per share after a 3:1 stock split in November of 2023. That gave investors 3 shares, for every one share they held. Pre-split, the shares traded from $0.99 to $288 a share, or 290-fold gain (or 28,000 percent). Who needs AI stocks..
The shares peaked in May of 2024. $10,000 invested quite magically became $2.9 million at that time. All a shareholder had to do was hold on (nearly impossible of course for today’s short traders lol) and drink a lot of Celcius. For breakfast, for lunch and maybe for happy hour mixed with Vodka!
The post-split share price gain was from $0.33 to $91.00
Watch List Addition to Peak Share Price. Madonna Mia. What a Ride!
February 18th, 2015 – $0.99. Top Beverage Stocks for 2015.
August 31st, 2018 – $4.18. Faces Sell Cases. Vanessa Walker, VP Marketing @ Celsius (CELH) $4.18.
March 25th, 2019 – $4.90. Adding Celcius to 2019 Beverage Watch List.
August 31st, 2019 – $4.18. 2Q. Adding Celcius to Focus List.
June 30th, 2020, – $11.00. Celsius Holdings Stock Up 200% In 3 Months But The Party Isn’t Over Yet.
August 27th, 2020 – $21.50. $21.50. Alkaline Water (WTER) vs. Celcius (CELH). Tale of the Tape!
When we first came across Celcius we were optimistic with a little bit of luck with the consumer, it could get to $4.00 or $5.00 a share. Never in our wildest imagination did we think it could go to $100 – much less $264. This is why we love beverge companies. You just NEVER know what will click (or not click) with the 260 million adult consumers in the US.
But we shall keep looking for the net big winner (ps it ain’t easy with vicious competition). It’s the thrill of the hunt. We’ll have the latest Beverage Stock Review 2025 Watch List out in the next week with some very interesting names that are below Wall Streets radar like Celcius was when we found it.
As for sales and revenues for Celcius, we were optimistic, thinking again – with a little bit of luck, it could grow from a tiny base of $17 million to $50 million in a few years. And indeed it did, hitting $50 million, three years after we added it to the Watch List, in 2015.
Never in our wildest imagination did we think sales could DOUBLE to $130 million two years later, DOUBLE to $300 million the next year, DOUBLE to $600 million the year after that, and DOUBLE again to $1.3 billion the year after that in 2023! Wait, what?
We’ve never seen anything like that before, and may never again. The primary reason is once many of the start-ups “prove-consumers-like-the-beverage” ” (typically defines as over $50 million in sales) they get acquired by a Coke (KO), Nestle (NSRGY) or Dr Pepper (KDP) who are on a constant hunt looking to strike before an acquisition target is acquired by a competitor.
In fact the game plan for many start-ups is not to grow organically (or profitably) year over year. They want to get to the $50 million “tipping point” and then get acquired. It’s these giants with massive shelf space, who can take the $50 million in revenues and grow it into $1 billion. They know that and so the pay premium prices.
(Moral of the story: stay away of beverage start-ups if you expect earnings to drive the stock price.)
Losses from 2015 – 2023
Unforetunately investors won’t firsthand witness that kind of growth, because it will be under the umbrella of a billion dollar international conglomerate and typically not broken out.
It’s a very risky game however, for any small company to grow fast (at all cost), meaning without regard to profits or profit margins. It requires investor support, either privately through VC’s or Private Equity funds or by being publicly traded and doing continual secondaries – with a goal of reaching “breakeven” operations (and a breather) and/or being acquired.
The most recent example is Poppi which started in the kitchen of the Ellsworth family, a husband and wife team, ten years ago. Last week Pepsi announced they would acquire Poppi for for a Whopping $1.9 billion.
The acquisition included $300 million of anticipated cash tax benefits. Meaning Pepsi gets these tax loss carry-foward benefits. Meaning Pepsi KNEW Poppi was hemmoraging cash and unprofitable.
On of the tough things on Wall Street with companies like this is uninformed investors make the mistake to focus solely on traditional fundamentals like earnings and profit margins. So shareholder loyalty is often fleeting, with investors getting in and out in a wash, rinse and repeat manner.
But consumers liked Poppi. And so Pepsi liked them. Simple.
Pepsi Co Buys Prebiotic Soda Brand Poppi For Nearly $2 Billion.
Another high-profile example would be Core Hydration which owned Core PH Water. It was acquired for $525 million by Dr Pepper. Filings reported they had raised $69 million prior to being acquired. So in basic terms, private investors made near 10X their money.
They also had $435 million in tax benefits, so like Poppi. So they were hemorrhaging money.
Core Nutrition Raises $39 Million Privately (BevNet)
Core Nutrition Acquired for $525 Million
For the last year it has been rough sledding for the Celcius stock for the past year and now we feel enough is enough. While it would be impossible to repeat the 260 fold gain, we think expecting an above market rate of return, looks like a sound bet from these levels.
SHORT TERM CHART
